Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
