Escalating Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Sparks Fears of Conflict

Increasing concerns have emerged about the potential of military engagement involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

Ethiopia-Eritrea border
The Ethiopian government and Eritrea worked together in the armed struggle in Tigray but they have subsequently disagreed.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on recently that moves to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Region

So far, there are little evidence of major military movements in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, national TV has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before turning into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then approved by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the war was over – a move that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.

Holly Rich
Holly Rich

A seasoned casino analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine mechanics and gambling strategy development.