Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The average figure of daily homicides each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative figures. However, security specialists have advised that murder figures may not signal improved national security.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the smallest number of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily military campaigns to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

However, security experts cautioned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But in spite of these actions, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.